Growth in 2019: Expect Higher Rates and Slower Price Growth
Fixed mortgages will rise in 2019, according to a poll conducted by CoreLogic during its annual conference. Attendees at this event weighed in on a slew of significant issues facing the housing industry and seven in eight expected fixed mortgage rates to post higher a year from now.
How much higher? Nearly two-thirds said rates would ramp up between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points, CoreLogic reports. That being said, almost one-fourth believed rates would blossom by more than 0.5 percentage points. To wit, 30-year, fixed-rate products were about 0.6 percentage points pricier this year than last year. They reached a seven-year high this May.
What will fixed-rate mortgages rates be at EPIQ2019?
With an occasional dip, mortgage rates have trended higher during the year leading up to EPIQ2018, CoreLogic’s annual client conference, with fixed-rates reaching a seven-year high in May 2018.
Thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgages were about 0.6 percentage points more expensive during EPIQ2018 than one year earlier. The attendees were asked what they expect the level of mortgage rates would be in one year, at the time of EPIQ2019.
How much will it change by EPIQ2019?
Nationally, home-price appreciation has accelerated over the last year. Comparing the 12-month change in the national index, growth measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) had accelerated by nearly 1 percentage point between May 2017 and May 2018.
Low for-sale inventory and increasing numbers of first-time buyers had contributed to the acceleration. The attendees were polled on what they expected the one-year price change would be with the release of the May 2019 HPI, the latest that would be available as of EPIQ2019.
Practically three-fourths of respondents expect price growth to lose speed in the national index during the next year, the poll reveals. Two in five poll takers forecast the falloff to be moderate, with the national HPI up 5 to 7 percentage points during the next year. Those numbers are in keeping with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast, the company notes.
Flipping that coin, however, almost one-third foresee the slowdown being more severe, with the national index growing less than 5 percentage points.
“The expectations were affected by a variety of assumptions each respondent had for how the economy and the housing market may evolve, reflected in the distribution of forecasts among the attendees,” the survey said.
“Nonetheless, a large majority of attendees expect higher mortgage rates and slower home-price growth during the next year.”
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